Experts say the past year saw a decline in laptop demand. TrendForceThe volume of their deliveries decreased by 24.5% to 182 million units at the close of the year. The shipment numbers could fall by 7.8% to 171,000,000 units in this year’s second quarter. This will also be the first quarter since the ten-year low in supply of laptops.
According to the study’s authors, suppliers tried to lure buyers by offering discounts in the last quarter but were unsuccessful. The study found that although producers attempted to lower prices on the US and Chinese markets, these efforts did not yield the desired results. Inflationary expectations are still high and continue to depress buying activity. The laptop segment is no different, given its high sales growth during this pandemic. Sellers will need to empty warehouses by the end of this year’s second quarter.
The first quarter 2023 will see a drop in notebook shipments to 35.1million units. This is a sequential decline of 9.5%. This corresponds to a ten year seasonal low. Laptop sellers built up stocks in anticipation of the traditional Chinese holiday at January’s end. The new quarter’s batches will now be smaller.
The TrendForce forecast shows that the drop in notebook shipments from the first to second quarters will be replaced with a steady growth of 17.8%. In the third quarter, this growth will slow to 13.7%. Only 2.2 % of laptops will be shipped in the fourth quarter. The situation will stabilize with supplies.
TrendForce experts also discuss other market trends such as the desire for manufacturers to relocate their laptop assembly plants to countries other than China. Compal, Wistron, and Foxconn are all contract manufacturers that have begun to increase the production of notebooks from China. A local population that is young and relatively affordable is more cost-effective than their Chinese counterparts. However, market players face the increasing complexity of logistics for components, many of which still have to be imported from China.
TrendForce claims that a major supplier to the American corporate market of laptops (guessed Dell) has set a goal for 20 to 30% reduction in dependence on China’s manufacturing base by 2027. Up to 20% of these devices will need to be made in Vietnam by the end of the current calendar year.
Another supplier of laptops for a well-known American brand will increase the percentage of Vietnamese-made laptops within its product structure by 10% this year.